The illusion of the shared electric automated mobility transition

In our new article with Dennis Seibert "The illusion of the shared electric automated mobility transition", we argue that the transition from private internal combustion engine-based automobility will likely favour privately-owned electric AVs over shared AVs, unless a landscape “shock” such as a climate breakdown, energy crisis or a significant political shift towards collective mobility exerts substantial pressure on the automobility regime.

Drawing from the multi-level perspective of technological transition, we develop a conceptual model for the transition towards private and shared electric automated mobility, supported by a comprehensive literature review.

Our analysis reveals that shared, particularly pooled, mobility emerges slowly (niche level). Key actors resist a shift from private to shared electric automated mobility for economic (vehicle manufacturers), instrumental, affective, symbolic (users and societal groups), tax-revenue, governance and administrative (public authorities) reasons (regime level). The private automobility regime receives only moderate pressure from the socio-technical landscape pertaining to safety, congestion and environmental issues and effectively reacts by electrifying and automating vehicles (landscape level).

Consequently, the socioeconomic benefits of the so-called “three revolutions of automobility” will likely be diminished.

Next question: What such a policy “shock” would entail? To be continued...

Open Access