Advancing safety through connected and autonomous vehicles: a meta-analysis of market penetration and safety improvement rates from 2015 to 2024
Enhanced road safety is presented as the key argument for introducing automated vehicles into our transport systems. But does the scientific evidence actually support this claim? In our new meta-analysis paper led by Amirhossein Taheri, with contributions from Jing Yang, Steffen Müller, Dimitris Milakis and Mohammed Quddus, we examined how safety benefits evolve as connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) enter the transport system. The study reviews 49 studies published between 2015 and 2024, analysing how Safety Improvement Rates (SIRs) change with different CAV Market Penetration Rates (MPRs). SIR measures the reduction in traffic conflicts or crashes as CAV adoption increases. Our results show that: - At low MPRs (10%-20%), safety gains are modest, with SIRs of 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively. - At mid-range MPRs (30%-60%), earlier studies appear to overestimate safety benefits, with our corrected estimates showing SIRs of 8.0% and 9.4%, respectively. - ...