Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands @TRB16
The
spotlight theme of the 95th meeting of the Transportation Research Board
(January 10-14, 2016) is “Research Convergence for a Multimodal Future”.
Planning implications of the future multimodal system in a context of changing
lifestyles and attitudes towards mobility is indeed a very interesting topic
surrounded by many uncertainties.
I
am happy to contribute to this discussion in session 751 “Planning for
Multimodal Transportation in the 21st Century” (Wednesday January 13, 8:00
AM- 9:45 AM, Convention Center, 146B) with our paper on scenarios about
development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands
co-authored by D. Milakis, M. Snelder, B. van Arem, B. van Wee, and G. Correia.
This
session will discuss the impacts of emerging technologies in transportation
(e.g., shared mobility services, including carsharing and on-demand ride
services such as Uber or Lyft, among others), sociodemographic shifts and changes
in lifestyles and attitudes (e.g., associated with the "millennial"
generation), and the future adoption of autonomous vehicles, and how these
factors are expected to affect future multimodal travel demand. Here is the
list of the very interesting papers of this session:
Session
Introduction - Planning for multimodal transportation at a time of
sociodemographic changes and emerging transportation services (P16-1433)
Giovanni
Circella, Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech)
Shared
Mobility Services: Industry Developments, Early Understandings and Planning
Implications (P16-0880)
Katie
Benouar, California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)
Erik
Alm, California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS)
Addressing
Emerging Trends in the Florida Transportation Plan (P16-0881)
James
Wood, Florida Department of Transportation
Dana
Reiding, Florida Department of Transportation
Carmen
Monroy, Florida Department of Transportation
Declining
Driving among Millennials: A Nationwide Perspective of the Causes and
Consequences (P16-1289)
Kelcie
Ralph, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Brian
Taylor, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Evelyn
Blumenberg, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Anne
Brown, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Carole
Turley Voulgaris, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Scenarios
about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands
(16-0765)
Dimitris
Milakis, Delft University of Technology
Maaike
Snelder, Delft University of Technology
Bart
van Arem, Delft University of Technology
Bert
van Wee, Delft University of Technology
Goncalo
Correia, Delft University of Technology
Our
paper presents the results of a research study carried out on behalf of the
Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). We identified through scenario
analysis plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the
Netherlands and estimated potential implications for traffic, travel behavior
and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario
analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of
diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were
identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles
in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of
high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies
for automated vehicles (AV …in standby, AV …in bloom, AV …in demand, AV …in
doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be
commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate market rapidly
after their introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among
different scenarios between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated
vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in
2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may
influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on
mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in
the impacts among the scenarios. It is expected that measures to curb growth of
travel and subsequent externalities will be necessary in three out of the four
scenarios.
 |
| Four scenarios about development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. |
The
full TRB paper is available here and a summary of the study (poster) prepared for
the Automated Vehicles Symposium 2015 can be downloaded from here.
Looking
forward to a fruitful discussion about multimodal futures at TRB16!
